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Arsenal vs Newcastle: Ozil big price at 7/1 to break Emirates deadlock

Arsenal vs Newcastle Match Preview and Predictions

Arsenal will look to boost their Champions League prospects for next season when they host in-form Newcastle on Monday night.

[All odds correct at time of publication] 

The Gunners moved back into the top four in their last Premier League outing with a 2-0 victory over Manchester United, the team they supplanted, although they could still qualify by winning the Europa League for which they are 5/1 third favourites.

Newcastle are almost safe from the threat of relegation having won five of their last nine matches, all of which have come at home.

Match information

When is it? Monday April 1st

What time is kick-off? 20:00

Where is it being played? Emirates Stadium

Which channel is it on? Sky Sports Premier League

Who is the referee? Anthony Taylor

Arsenal vs Newcastle Betting Tips

Here are our best tips for the Arsenal vs Newcastle game for which we also have a range of other markets available:

The lowdown

Analysis of recent meetings between the two sides and their respective performances on a home and away basis suggests Arsenal are heading for three points on April Fool's Day.

The Gunners have the third best home record in the Premier League this season with 13 wins and two draws from their 16 matches, while the Magpies have just two victories from their 15 games on the road - the joint third worst win tally of all 20 teams.

In September, goals from Granit Xhaka and Mesut Ozil gave the Gunners a 2-1 victory at St James' Park which means they have won 11 of their last 12 meetings, with Newcastle's sole win in that period coming at home last season.

With Arsenal hoping to make it 10 home wins in a row it's small wonder Unai Emery's side are 2/5 to snap up another three points at the Emirates, but the first of our Arsenal vs Newcastle predictions is for the Gunners to win and both teams to score at 15/8.

Arsenal are the Premier League's top performers in the both teams to score table at 73% mainly on the back of their away games which would have paid out 13 times out of 14 in this market.

However, even at home they are prone to concede a goal with Burnley, Cardiff and Fulham three of the nine sides to have scored at the Emirates.

The Magpies have scored in seven of their 10 matches against top-six sides and although the percentage is slightly lower away from home, they still found the net at both Manchester clubs and Chelsea.

This week's best bets

If you're interested in more midweek football tips, check out our other previews:

First goalscorer tips

Mesut Ozil looks to be back in favour and is an interesting candidate to be first goalscorer at 7/1.

Four of the German's five goals have come at the Emirates all of which have been against middling teams like Newcastle, against whom he has a decent goalscoring record.

Ozil scored what turned out to be the winner against the Magpies in September and he also bagged the only goal in last season's win at the Emirates.

Anytime goalscorer tips

Salomon Rondon has scored in back-to-back Premier League games and also broke the deadlock in Venezuela's 3-1 victory against Argentina in last Friday's friendly in Madrid.

The on-loan West Brom striker scores most of his goals against mediocre sides but he bagged the equaliser in the shock win against Manchester City, so has to be considered at 11/5 in the anytime goalscorer odds.

Where the game will be won or lost

Rafa Benitez claimed after the 2-2 draw at Bournemouth that Newcastle just need one more win to guarantee another season in the Premier League.

He said: "We have to keep going, the job is not done. We have to keep winning games. I think it could be 38 points (to stay up), it depends. Obviously, 40 is guaranteed for me. I think 38 will be enough, so we have to keep winning if we can."

With the Magpies currently on 35 points that would mean just one more win from their last seven games, but to have a chance of accomplishing that feat they will have to be wary of an Arsenal team that love to burst out of the blocks.

Across all competitions, the Gunners have opened the scoring inside the first six minutes in five of their last seven matches and the other two came in the 12th and 16th minutes.

The graphic below tells us that in general Arsenal have tended to score and concede between 11-20 minutes since the start of last season, so the first goal to come between that period is the next of our Arsenal vs Newcastle betting tips at 4/1.

We wrap up our Arsenal vs Newcastle tips by going for a 2-1 home win at 8/1.

The last six encounters between the teams have been settled by a one-goal margin of victory, two of which have been won 2-1 by the Gunners, who have scored exactly two goals in four of their last five home matches.

Team news

Arsenal will be without the suspended Lucas Torreira but Aaron Ramsey is expected to be passed fit, having been troubled by his left thigh, as is Nacho Monreal, who has returned to training after hurting his right calf. Granit Xhaka also faces a late fitness test on a muscle injury but striker Danny Welbeck is out with an ankle injury, while knee issues continue to sideline Hector Bellerin and Rob Holding.

Newcastle defender Fabian Schar is suspended as he completes a two-match ban having reached 10 bookings for the season, but he would almost certainly have sat out the game anyway after being knocked unconscious in a clash of heads during Switzerland's 2-0 Euro 2020 qualifying win over Georgia last Saturday. Skipper Jamaal Lascelles has recovered from the knee problem which kept him out of the 2-2 draw at Bournemouth last time out, leaving only Sean Longstaff (knee) on the sidelines.

Traders' Tips - View from the trading floor

Arsenal top the both teams to score table and they beat Newcastle 2-1 at St James' Park when the teams met earlier in the season. The Magpies have a good record of scoring against top-six sides, so both teams to score at 4/5 catches the eye.

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Warren Barner
@warren_barner in Football