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Brighton vs West Ham: Home form a comfort for Seagulls

Brighton vs West Ham Match Preview and Predictions

West Ham travel to Brighton on Friday night brimming with confidence having taken seven points from three tough fixtures in recent weeks.

[All odds correct at time of publication] 

The Hammers lost their first four matches of the season but have surged out of the relegation zone with 3-1 victories against Everton and Manchester United either side of a goalless draw with Chelsea.

Brighton find themselves just below West Ham in 15th place following back-to-back defeats by Tottenham and Manchester City.

Match information

When is it? Friday 5th October

What time is kick-off? 20:00

Where is it being played? Amex Stadium

Which channel is it on? Sky Sports Premier League

Who is the referee? Kevin Friend

Brighton vs West Ham Betting Tips

Here are our best tips for Friday's match and we also have a range of other markets available:

The lowdown

Brighton had the third best home record outside the top six last season when they lost just four games, a factor which effectively ensured their Premier League status.

The Seagulls made a decent start to the current campaign on home territory with a 3-2 win against Manchester United which they followed by coming back from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Fulham.

However, they came unstuck against Tottenham two weeks ago with an expected goals total of just 1.09.

West Ham may be on a high after their recent points tally but they are lagging behind Brighton in terms of quality chances and both defences are inside the bottom four.

With that in mind the first of our Brighton vs West Ham predictions is for the match to finish as a draw at 11/5.

Both defences have looked leaky with Brighton conceding an average of 1.91xG, while West Ham are even higher at 2.05.

That said, West Ham have been clinical in attack of late when Marko Arnautovic has been fit so a score draw at 10/3 is the next of our Premier League predictions.

First goalscorer tips

In-form Arnautovic is the fifth highest scorer in the Premier League this season with four goals and he has a higher expected goals aggregate than any other player competing in Friday's match.

The former Stoke forward struck against quality opponents too and also opened the scoring at Arsenal, so 9/2 to break the deadlock is the next of our Brighton vs West Ham betting tips.

Anytime goalscorer tips

With both teams having a couple of injury concerns, looking further down the list in the anytime goalscorer odds may pay dividends.

Shane Duffy has scored twice this season and is Brighton's fourth most threatening player over the last 10 games and gets the nod at 6/1 to score anytime against the Premier League's fourth leakiest defence.

Where the game will be won or lost

Manuel Pellegrini seems to have found the winning formula after masterminding three extremely impressive results although their expected goals totals tell us they were behind on each occasion.

Clinical finishing against quality opponents has perhaps flattered the Hammers so it will be interesting to see how Pellegrini approaches a match against one of the Premier League's lesser lights.

As long as Arnautovic is fit, the Austrian will almost certainly be the focal point in attack for the Hammers who lost home and away to Brighton last season.

Glenn Murray opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes in both matches, but we fancy the deadlock to be broken between 21-30 minutes at 11/2.

The above graphic shows that Brighton are both creative and vulnerable during that spell and the deadlock has been broken in that period in three of their seven matches this season.

Feature match previews for this weekend

If you're interested in tips on our feature matches for the weekend, check out our in-depth previews below:

Team news

Brighton will hand Dale Stephens a late fitness test on a hamstring injury, but forward Pascal Gross is yet to recover from an ankle complaint. Jose Izquierdo is fit after a knee issue.

West Ham are likely to be unchanged, with midfielders Carlos Sanchez (knee) and Jack Wilshere (ankle) still sidelined along with striker Javier Hernandez, who is still building up his fitness after a bout of glandular fever.

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Warren Barner
@warren_barner in Football